Mullaperiyar Dam will burst soon

Mullaperiyar Dam will burst soon due to under-design

      For assessing the safety of Mullaperiyar dam 3 goals of public safety must be satisfied as per the modern state-of-art used for design of the dams. The first goal is based on the geological foundations, seismic potential and seismicity of the area.   The second goal pertains to structural safety of the dam based on maximum credible earthquake including hydrological safety and spillway design flood. The third safety goal for the dam pertains to the environmental safety that comprises on risk analysis, dam break analysis, emergency response, disaster management including emergency evacuation plans and cost benefit analysis.  In the case of the 116 year old Mullaperiyar dam none of these safety criteria was considered.  The controversy about the Mullaperiyar dam is based upon the contention of the Kerala state that the dam is in a deteriorating state and its imminent collapse causes avoidable killing of 35 lakhs of Keralites due to a wall of flood.  In order to avert this disaster waiting in the wings Kerala insists on construction of a new dam to provide security of life for the Keralites while assuring uninterrupted irrigation water to Tamil Nadu as per the agreement between the states. But Tamil Nadu is suspecting the intentions of Kerala in planning for a new dam which may be placed under the control of Kerala that may soon curtail the existing Periyar water diversion into Tamil Nadu.  Thus Tamil Nadu is rejecting the demand of Kerala for a new dam on the pretext that the aged Mullaperiyar dam is almost as strong as a new dam due to the remedial strengthening measures implemented by it.  But if the existing dam were to burst for several reasons even Tamil Nadu cannot get Periyar water and consequently lakhs of Tamil Nadu agriculture fields will become barren lands that may lead to avoidable suicides of thousands of farmers and farm workers.  Tamil Nadu is ignoring the fact that their costly strengthening measures produces only a composite dam and not an integrated and strong dam.  The dam cannot withstand the stresses resulting from peak ground accelerations due to a 6.5 magnitude earthquake at a shallow focal depth in close proximity of the dam.  Even a strong Koyna dam cracked in some parts in 1969 due to an earthquake of 6.5 magnitude and caused serious damage Moreover the dam has also been under-designed for hydrological safety because the historical maximum flood is 86 lakh cusecs and the design flood for spillway discharge is 1.22 lakh cubic ft. per second (cusecs).  In United States safety of dam is reviewed every 5 years to decommission hazardous dams and to strengthen the useful one by implementing remedial measures for strengthening them.   In case of Mullaperiyar dam the extreme flood magnitude in terms of safety works out to 2.44 lakh cusecs based on the mathematical formulations and the envelope curves connecting extreme floods with catchment areas published by the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD) under the guidance of experts like Prof.L.Berga, Chairman, ICOLD and Lempererie, Chairman of French National Committee on Large Dams.  Moreover the impact of climate change is causing both the intensity and duration of cyclones that magnify the floods.  Particularly in thickly forested river basins.  For instance the October  2009 are extreme flood of 26 lakh cusecs at Srisailam dam on Krishna river constituted 2.7 times the historical flood and twice the maximum spillway design flood.  Since Mullaperiyar dam is thus under-designed both from seismological and hydrological safety aspects this dam is inevitably bound to collapse irrespective of the pronouncements of the engineering experts who could not stop the collapse of more than 40 dam bursts in India including the masonry dams of Tigra in Madhya Pradesh, Kundali in Maharashtra, Chickhole in Karnataka and Kadhakwasla in Maharashtra.  According to the Environmental Protection Act the dam safety studies including disaster scenarios, emergency response systems, emergency evacuation schemes and cost-benefit analysis reports have not been prepared consequently the people and the Governmental decision making bodies  have been disabled to come to a scientific decision on the safety of the Mullaperiyar dam and that it is why the Tamilnadu Government fails to read the writing on the wall and thereby indirectly promoting a man-made catastrophe like the Bhopal disaster inspite of the forewarnings by several experts.  If the Mullaperiyar dam collapses sooner than later it will cause not only loss of lives of lakhs of people but also causes an economic disaster paving the way for economic bankruptcy of the states and the nation.  Since Mullaperiyar dam is a prescription for disaster it must be prevented by the whole national by exerting pressure on the Prime Minister to resolve the problem by building a new dam even without dismantling the existing dam by forming a corporation on the lines of  the one used for building Tehri and Sardar Sarovar Project. There is a danger to the life of people of Kerala due to an impending Dam Burst because the Supreme Court orders may or may not be implemented by the states under the guise of seeking clarifications from the Courts and in the meantime precious time will be lost and the Dams may burst and kill 35 lakhs of Keralites. So, Kerala must immediately call for an international tender to find out if foreign experts can furnish alternate small scale dams that can absorb the flash floods caused by Mullaperiyar Dam, after verifying the flood absorbing capacity of Idukki Dam. Prof.T.Shivaji Rao Director, Center for Environmental Studies, GITAM University, Visakhapatnam.

Modi’s first Cabinet Meeting at 5 PM today

As the Prime Minister of the nation Mr Narendra Modi will hold the rights to Finance, Defense and Corporate affairs, Personnel, Public Grievances and Pensions, Department of Atomic Energy Department of Space and all important policy issues and all other portfolios not allocated to any other minister.The newly elected Ministers have already started assuming office and are occupying their respective chambers. They are scheduled to meet Mr Modi at 5:00 PM, today in their first Cabinet meeting after the swearing in ceremony yesterday. As per the Rashtrapati Bhavan communiqué ,the portfolio allocation of 46 ministers, including 24 cabinet ministers is given as follows. Cabinet Ministers include: Rajnath Singh: Home Affairs Sushma Swaraj: External Affairs, Overseas Indian Affairs Arun Jaitley: Finance, Corporate Affairs, Defence M. Venkaiah Naidu: Urban Development, Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation, Parliamentary Affairs Nitin Gadkari: Road Transport and Highways, Shipping D.V. Sadananda Gowda: Railways Uma Bharati: Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation Najma A. Heptulla: Minority Affairs Gopinathrao Munde: Rural Development, Panchayati Raj, Drinking Water and Sanitation Ramvilas Paswan: Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution Kalraj Mishra: Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Maneka Gandhi: Women and Child Development Ananth Kumar: Chemicals and Fertilizers Ravi Shankar Prasad: Communications and Information Technology, Law and Justice Ashok Gajapathi Raju Pusapati: Civil Aviation Anant Geete: Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises Harsimrat Kaur Badal: Food Processing Industries Narendra Singh Tomar: Mines, Steel, Labour and Employment Jual Oram: Tribal Affairs Radha Mohan Singh: Agriculture Thaawar Chand Gehlot: Social Justice and Empowerment Smriti Irani: Human Resource Development Harsh Vardhan: Health and Family Welfare The Ministers of State include: V.K. Singh: Development of North Eastern Region (Independent Charge), External Affairs, Overseas Indian Affairs Inderjit Singh Rao: Planning (Independent Charge), Statistics and Programme Implementation (Independent Charge), Defence Santosh Kumar Gangwar: Textiles (Independent Charge), Parliamentary Affairs, Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation Shripad Yesso Naik: Culture (Independent Charge), Tourism (Independent Charge) Dharmendra Pradhan: Petroleum and Natural Gas (Independent Charge) Sarbananda Sonowal: Skill Development, Entrepreneurship, Youth Affairs and Sports (Independent Charge) Prakash Javadekar: Information and Broadcasting (Independent Charge), Environment, Forest and Climate Change (Independent Charge), Parliamentary Affairs Piyush Goyal: Power (Independent Charge), Coal (Independent Charge), New and Renewable Energy (Independent Charge) Jitendra Singh: Science and Technology (Independent Charge), Earth Sciences (Independent Charge), Prime Minister Office, Personnel, Public Grievances and Pensions, Department of Atomic Energy, Department of Space Nirmala Sitharaman: Commerce and Industry (Independent Charge), Finance, Corporate Affairs G.M. Siddeshwara: Civil Aviation Manoj Sinha: Railways Nihalchand: Chemicals and Fertilizers Upendra Kushwaha: Rural Development, Panchayati Raj, Drinking Water and Sanitation P. Radhakrishnan: Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises Kiren Rijiju, Home Affairs Krishan Pal: Road Transport and Highways, Shipping Sanjeev Kumar Balyan: Agriculture, Food Processing Industries Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava: Tribal Affairs Raosaheb Dadarao Danve: Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution Vishnu Deo Sai: Mines, Steel, Labour and Employment Sudarshan Bhagat: Social Justice and Empowerment