NRI Assessment of AP Politics

Here's the AP political assessment by an Atlanta based NRI Dr Gurava Reddy. The views expressed in the article are entirely of the author. However, the article has been brought to you for the sole reason of getting your feedback and views.

"Election Results of 5 Assemblies and Ramifications for AP Politics"

The results of the recently concluded five state assemblies proved one thing beyond doubt – no Sonia/Rahul spell works. And, there are some conclusions that can be derived for the present situation in Andhra Pradesh. People are fed up with the Congress party and see it as a party of vindictive politics, be it Anna Hazare or Dr. YSR. Congress party has been reduced to its weakest level in its history - there are genuine doubts that it may not even cross century mark out of 544 seat Loksabha if the elections are held today and may do worse in 2014 elections. UP trouncing comes after Bihar debacle.

Congress party lost its foothold all over the country and the Party cannot even claim one major state where it can win more than half seats. It’s truly a pathetic state of affairs for Congress party after storming to power twice on the shoulders of stalwarts like Dr YSR. Losing eight of ten segments in Amethi and Rae Bareli and worse yet standing third in five those reflects the hopeless position of Congress party! These results would be a huge confidence booster for YS Jagan, YSRCP, and its followers. If Akhilesh and Mulayam can do it, Jagan and late Dr. YSR can do better. Congress party is weaker in AP than in UP, Chandra Babu/TDP is weaker in AP than Mayavathi/BSP in UP. Cycle may have swept to victory in UP, but the cycle and hand that is holding it will be swept away in the huge fan wave in AP.

These results also vindicated the claims of YSR followers that the Congress party had come to power in Andhra Pradesh twice on the efforts of Dr. YSR alone. Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Congress party did not have anything to do with it. They only reaped the benefits of his charisma and gotten to power at the center. The Congress party, instead of acknowledging Dr. YSR’s contribution, started mudslinging on the late leader and his family thro their henchmen like VH, KK etc.

The prevailing situation provided a great opportunity for the formation of third front and early elections to replace a largely ineffective central government, well before 2014. Mulayam Singh Yadav or Mamata Benarjee can be a great Prime Minister and provide a very efficient government. Mayavathi, completely humiliated in the just concluded elections can be a very willing partner in the third front, if invited and this may help to sweep not only UP but neighboring states like Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. A credible third front can easily win over people, who are fed up with both Congress and BJP and looking for a real alternative. Both Mulayam and Didi can with their effective and extensive experience in national politics can essentially provide just that. The efforts should focus on uniting erstwhile Socialists to form the third front.
Mulayam (UP – 80 seats),
Mamata (WB – 42),
Jayalalita (TN – 39),
Jagan (AP – 42),
Naveen (Orissa – 21), and
Nitish (Bihar – 40) should be essential partners, along with the Communists and Marxist parties.

The third front must publish their common agenda and manifesto well before elections are held and stick to it like a holy book. This may be the most opportune time for the formation of a credible third front in the history of our country. For people who were fed up with knee jerk efforts to form third front by Chandra Babu, who cannot win more than a couple of MP seats in AP -  this will be welcome news."