Kovur By-election: An Acid Test For Jagan

Kovur constituency in Nellore district is one of the seven constituencies in Andhra Pradesh that are going for by-elections on 18 March, 2012. The Kovur Assembly by-poll has assumed significance because it would be the first election fought by the YSR Congress Party outside its home turf Kadapa. People are eagerly waiting to see how this newborn YSR party fares in the bypoll.

The YSR party and its president YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, who is also a sitting MP from Kadapa, are very confident that they are going to wrench the Kovur seat with a thumping 60,000 majority. But, going by the present situation, it wouldn't be a cakewalk as presumed by the party. The following factors are to be taken into consideration while assessing the chances of YSRC candidate Prasanna Kumar Reddy winning from this constituency.

The Nellore district is dominated by Reddys and all the three candidates from TDP, YSRCP and the Congress are Reddys. The election is going to be a triangular fight between these three parties and all of them are well equipped to give fierce conpetition to each other. Taking it as a prestigious election, Jagan Mohan Reddy is touring extensively in all five mandals of Kovur segment seeking support for party nominee N. Prasanna Kumar Reddy. TDP president N. Chandrababu Naidu also held a hectic campaign for his party candidate S. Chandramohan Reddy.

Interestingly, The Congress campaign has remained low-key from the beginning with party nominee Polamreddy Srinivasulu Reddy mostly relying on support from groups led by Finance Minister Anam Ramnarayan Reddy, Magunta Parvathamma, Union Minister Panabaka Lakshmi and others. In 2009, Mr. Prasanna Kumar contested on a TDP ticket and defeated present Congress nominee Mr. Srinivasulu Reddy by a margin of 7,444 votes. He has resigned from the party to join YSRC, paving way for this by-election.

Lately the campaign has turned into a squabble with rival leaders, setting aside main issues, have begun hurling personal allegations against each other. TDP mounted a massive campaign against Mr. Prasanna Kumar in order to create a situation where his candidature is seen as a liability for the YSRCP. Though Mr. Chandramohan Reddy is Prasanna Kumar's maternal uncle, he is not mincing words in criticising his nephew. The problems of sugarcane farmers under the Kovur Cooperative Sugar Factory, closure of Kovur Thermal Station and acquisition of 2,750 acres for Kisan SEZ are some of issues brought into focus by political parties during their campaign.

As Kovur is the only seat going to by-poll in Andhra region, compared to six seats in Telangana, top leaders of all parties have intensified their efforts. It can't be ruled out that after the death of YSR and continuing persecution of his son Jagan by the Congress has generated considerable sympathy wave among the voters. The YSRCP has pinned its hopes on the late YSR's image and support from the numerically strong communities of Reddys and Malas besides Muslims. On the other hand, the TDP wants to benefit from a split in these communities besides getting considerable support from Yanadis, Madigas, Pallekarulu, Kammas, Yadavas, Gouds, and other backward communities.

Though it is a triangular fight, the YSR party faces more trouble from TDP than Congress. In normal circumstances, the TDP would have easily won because of the backward class support it had previously. But now with YSR party in the picture, the support may decline considerably marring the prospects of TDP. This by-election is an acid test for both Jagan and his YSRC party. If the YSR party looses the election to TDP, then YSR party will be devastated. If the YSR party wins this lone bypoll in Andhra region, pushing the Congress to a humiliating third position, then There is every chance for the YSRCP to emerge as the single largest party in 2014 General Elections.